Saturday 15 December 2012

US and UK Central Banks about to announce low-key, but drastic change in Policy.


Looks like there is about to be a sea change in the way that central banks around the world operate. In a zero interest rate environment, with their backs to the wall, they are trying to find a way of packaging 'QE infinity' without it looking like what it actually is, which is more or less entirely supporting the economy with printed money.
The unique way they have found to do this is 'The Evans Rule' or NGDP targeting. Essentially, this means that the central bank will keep providing liquidity until certain goals in growth have been accomplished. In other words, instead of being concerned about inflation, it looks they are about to finally cast that concern aside in the search for growth.
With all major currencies essentially involved in a race to the bottom in an attempt to make their exports cheaper, the very real possibility of hyperinflation is essentially being sidelined in an attempt to chase greater growth. What the outcome of this policy will be is hard to tell, essentially, the idea is if they just keep pouring money into the system, growth will resume. However, since they are giving the money to the banks, instead of directly to the people who actually need it, I suspect that growth will continue to be illusive.
Of course, in my opinion, much of this growth problem could be easily solved by giving all that bailout money to people instead of banks and let them spend it. However, even though this would work, it goes against one of the central tenets of capitalism, which is that you _never_ give money to the poor. Better to turn it into bombs and blow it up, or set it on fire, anything but give it to the poor.
Secondly, if they did give every family in America $1000 a very large amount of it would wind up in the black market as they buy drugs, or participate in the cash economy. Since the black market is untraceable by it's very nature, its growth would not provide the figures the central banks need, even though black market services have the potential to benefit many people economically.

Now for the final kicker. The Fed has announced it is going to adopt this program. [link here]
In addition, Meryn King, the current head of the Bank of England, is about to be replaced by the former head of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, who is a big promoter of this idea, unlike the current BoE head. [link here]

QE infinity can have only one possible outcome, which is hyperinflation of Weimar Republic Proportions. Of course, we now know why hyperinflation happened in those countries, the government could never balance it's books and at the time, they could not stop spending because of their involvement in wars of conquest.
It seems that the USA is doomed to repeat the same pattern.